Saturday, September 15, 2007


I must say, that I love Taiwan. It is one of the most bad-ass nations in the world. Here they are, with a massive world power off of their coast, which claims that it will start a war should Taiwan try to gain independence.

And, after all those threats, what do they do? They go and hold rallies over this next week to try and get themselves recognized by the UN as either the Republic of China, their official name, or Taiwan.

For those of you not versed in International Political History, Taiwan was the official representative to the UN for years, until the Soviet Union managed to force a vote to strip them of their recognition in favor of the "People's Republic."

Since the 1940's, the two nations have been staring down the other. And now, it looks like someone might finally flinch.

Now, let's look at the current state of things in this soon to be conflict.

1. China will be fighting a People's War. They have 7 Million troops, we have 2.5 Million

2. China's current increasing economy will allow them to modernize their military

3. US and China have major Alliance Pacts
A. NATO vs Shanghai Co-operation Organization
B. Organization of American States vs Association of SE Asian Nations +3

4. Both are Superpowers, and WILL Clash

5. US has over 10,000 Nuclear, China has 200
A. US leads in Precision and Dumb Bomb Nukes
B. US has the Nuclear Tri-ad (ICBM, SLBM, Nuke Bombs)
C. US has a Missile Defense Shield
D. China has None
E. China has hidden silos
F. All Chinese missile are in Manchuria
G. US has instant Retaliation
H. China has a Two Hour retaliation
I. Nuclear Warheads and Missiles must be stored seperately
II. Fuel corodes the warhead

6. Airforce
A. PLAAF has the edge in numbers of Aircraft
I. China has 3,000 Combat Aircraft
II. US has 2,500 COmbat Aircraft
B. US has the edge in training
I. US get 300 hours/pilot/year of training
II. Chinese get 100 hours/pilot/year of training
C. US has more Combat Experience
D. US has more Comprehensive Training
E. USAF have better Air Force
F. China has no Logistical Aircraft
E. China is very innovative, and converts old planes into UAV's
F. China trains officers overseas
G. China is developing Anti-Satellite Weapons
F. China is going to mine the moon by 2010, they hope

A. US has the edge in terms of Carriers
I. Main ships of the fleet
II. Carriers tell a lot about the nation's fleet
B. China has 3, US has 24
I. 2 of China's Carriers are Permanent Theme Parks
II. Other one is permanently Inactive
C. US has 12 Carrier Battle Groups
D. US has 1,000 of the world's 1,250 carrier based aircraft
E. Average Chinese Ship displaces 9x less tons
F. China has more Defensive One-Man boats

8. Combat Commands
A. US has 5 World Regional Commands
B. China has Seven National Command Regions
I. China is going to adopt our system

9. Marines
A. US has 180,000 Marines
B. China has 7,000 Marines

10. Mallaca
A. 80% of fuel comes through this straight
B. US could blockade the straight and starve the nation

11. PLA
A. Cinese 7 Million Soldiers
I. Each one worth $50,000
B. US 2.5 Million Soldiers
I. Each one worth $200,00
C. Chinese soldiers only now being equipped with mess kits for each soldier
I. Three years ago had to share a single mess kit
D. Chinese Soldier Standard of Living is worse than before Korea
E. 2025 Chinese soldier will be worth more than US soldier
F. Not very maneuverable, too many of them

3 Possible Attacks

Indirect: Influence the middle east against the United States via a Proxy War
Invade Kazakhstan for their oil
China has Massed troops on Kazakhstan Border to engage in quick overland thrusts into Kazakhstan
Could act in N. Korea, and has massed some forces on the border with Korea
Could invade India, though unlikely due to Himalayas and Friendship
War in SE Asia to secure the Straights, though unlikely due to Military Alliance
And, of course, Taiwan

Considered a part of the PRC by the PRC
Could blockade or attack the small Island Nation
Is currently massing
Would be very costly in time and personnel
Would remove soldiers needed to keep the peace in China

China has Massed
50 % of Army Groups
45 % of Army Divisions
60% of Mechanized Divisions
60% of Artillery
100% of Marines
40% of Sailors

All above information comes from Military History Podcast, from Episode 66, the Chinese PLA Threat

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